
Will COVID-19 Cause Deflation to Show Up?
On June 10, 2020, the Department of Labor released CPI numbers for May and there was a chorus singing deflationary tunes for the rest of the week. Will the chorus get louder over the coming months or lose its voice in the heat of the summer? The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers declined 0.1% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after falling 0.8% in April Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 0.1% before seasonal adjustment Further, it was reported that: “Declines in the indexes for motor vehicle insurance, energy, and apparel more than offset increases in food and shelter indexes to result in the monthly decrease in the seasonally adjusted all items index. The gasoline index declined 3.5 percent in May, leading to a 1.8-percent decline in the energy index. The food index, in contrast, increased 0.7 percent in May as the index for food at home rose 1.0 percent. The index for all items less food and energy fell 0.1 percent in May, its third consecutive monthly decline. This is the first time this index has ever declined in three consecutive months. Along with motor vehicle insurance and apparel, the indexes for airline fares and used cars and trucks declined in May. The indexes for shelter, recreation, medical care, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles all increased.” This data adds another worry to any economic recovery – whether it’s U-shaped, V-shaped or doesn’t take any shape at all – as deflation is now a real possibility. In fact, this is the first time in over 60 years that core CPI has dropped for









