Equities rose during the holiday-shortened week as investors digested several geopolitical and trade headlines alongside a mixed batch of key economic data.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
We lowered our 2019 earnings growth forecast for the S&P 500 Index on August 19 due to increased risk to economic growth and corporate profits from the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China. Until we get clarity on trade, we believe earnings will likely continue to grow but only modestly.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
Fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain solid even as trade uncertainty weighs on investor sentiment.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
We recently reduced our year-end forecast range for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 2.5–2.75% to 1.75–2%. This significant reduction reflects what we consider the many somewhat curious aspects of the domestic and global macroeconomic environments. Trade uncertainty, low inflation, geopolitical risks, monetary policy, and relative valuation all played a role in our decision. To be sure, delayed prospects for a U.S.-China trade agreement remain central to our economic and market projections in the coming months.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
Equities investors endured another volatile week, book-ended by positive trade vibes Monday, August 19, only to be thrust into negative territory Friday, August 23.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
We have lowered our projections for U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and operating earnings for the S&P 500 Index in 2019, as we noted in the August 19 Weekly Market Commentary: Tweaking Forecasts, and introduced our preliminary 2020 forecasts.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
We have maintained our S&P 500 Index year-end fair value target of 3,000 despite our lowered economic and earnings growth forecasts amid trade uncertainty.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
Recession fears from the yield curve inversion offset the boost from the tariff delay.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
Stocks endured significant volatility last week but showed some resilience Wednesday, August 7.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
The equity markets struggled in the week ending Thursday, August 8, weighed down by currency-related trade uncertainty after China retaliated against new tariffs by devaluing the yuan.
Source: WEEKLY COMMENTARY
